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紧急埃博拉爆发微博

【#刚果金埃博拉疫情再起# 】话说,在某个无人注意的角落,本次刚果金埃博拉暴发的病死率已经一路稳定上涨到了46%(图一)而MILD爱好者们半场开香槟那阵(图二),病死率还只有31%……哎,半场开香槟要不得啊顺便给《呼吸界》的标题做个短文改错:WHO所谓的“2月已隐秘传播”,靠的并不是“基因测序证实”,而只是照搬了CDC MMWR的建模估算。然后CDC MMWR那个估算也搞没什么基因测序,而是跑了一个很糙的模型,真的特别糙……简单来说就是根据(刚果金官方公布的)死亡数来反推(图三)可是大家应该都懂的吧,刚果金官方公布的死亡数,基本上一个字都不能信那么有没有更给力的、基于基因测序的分析结果呢?有的各位,早就有了,结果是:TMRCA中位数是3月8日或15日,95%HPD 2月初到4月中旬(图四)最后出一道送命题吧:2月份开始隐匿传播或者3月份开始隐匿传播,哪种情况的含焦量更高?按照WHO和《呼吸界》的说法,似乎2月份开始隐匿传播是一个很糟糕的情况……然而其实并不是这样的。如果真如分子定年分析显示的那样,3月份才开始隐匿传播,那才真的让人焦虑 收起d

疾病

埃博拉

地区

刚果

热度

60

严重程度

紧急

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